[American Society of Civil Engineers First International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis and Management (ICVRAM 2011); and Fifth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Anaylsis (ISUMA) - Hyattsville, Maryland, United States (April 11-13, 2011)] Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk - A New Approach of Risk Analysis for Complex Infrastructure Systems under Future Uncertainties: A Case of Urban Water Systems