[IEEE 2016 International Symposium on Power Electronics, Electrical Drives, Automation and Motion (SPEEDAM) - Capri, Italy (2016.6.22-2016.6.24)] 2016 International Symposium on Power Electronics, Electrical Drives, Automation and Motion (SPEEDAM) - A Bayesian-based approach for the short-term forecasting of electrical loads in smart grids.: Part I: theoretical aspects

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